Highlights

• • Market implies away win ~74.5%, which is inconsistent with the supplied career and recent data
• • Breakeven odds for our estimate are ~2.083; current home odds 2.95 materially exceed that

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and the market price yields positive EV
• + Available odds are significantly higher than the breakeven threshold

Cons

• - Research is limited: identical records and sparse match detail raise uncertainty
• - No H2H, injury, or contextual venue information in the supplied data to refine the estimate

Details

We find value on Honoka Kobayashi (home) because the market is pricing Jiangxue Han as a heavy favorite (1.342, implied ~74.5%) despite both players showing nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data. With little to separate them on surface history or recent results in the supplied research, a near-even match-up is a reasonable baseline. We conservatively estimate Kobayashi's true win probability at 48%; at the offered home moneyline of 2.95 (implied 33.9%) this represents positive expected value. The breakeven decimal for our probability is 2.083, well below the available 2.95, so a value opportunity exists, while noting the small sample sizes and limited detail increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Both players have effectively identical career records and recent results in the provided data (10-21), implying a near-even matchup
• • Bookmaker prices make the away player a large favorite (1.342) which implies a much higher win probability than the on-paper data supports
• • Limited sample size and scarce injury/H2H information increase uncertainty despite apparent value