Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Gaston despite inferior supplied career record
• • Fair odds implied by our model (~1.643) are much shorter than available 3.50

Pros

• + Large gap between market price and our estimated true probability
• + Both players have overlapping surface histories, minimizing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - No head-to-head data provided and limited context on venue/conditions
• - Career win rates may not fully capture recent form or injuries (research shows recent losses for both)

Details

We see a large market disparity: the market prices Hugo Gaston at 1.29 (implied ~77.5%) while Christoph Negritu is available at 3.50 (implied ~28.6%). Using only the supplied player records, Negritu's career win rate (44-35 -> ~55.7%) is materially higher than Gaston's (19-34 -> ~35.8%). Normalizing those win rates to form a head-to-head probability estimate gives Negritu roughly a 60.9% chance to win. That estimated true probability (0.609) implies fair odds ≈1.643, far shorter than the market price of 3.50 — creating substantial positive expected value. Surface participation overlap (both have experience on hard and clay) and recent comparable match activity reduce a surface-based adjustment, so the primary driver of our edge is the mismatch between career-derived win probabilities and the current moneyline. Given the constraints of using only the provided research, we treat the career win rates as the best available signal and therefore recommend backing Negritu at current prices.

Key factors

• • Negritu's materially better career win rate (44-35 vs 19-34)
• • Market-implied probability for Negritu (≈28.6%) is far below our estimated true probability (≈60.9%)
• • Both players have experience on the relevant surfaces, reducing surface-driven adjustment