Highlights

• • Gaston has documented grass experience; Couacaud does not in the provided data
• • Current market price implies a higher probability than our estimate, producing negative EV

Pros

• + Gaston: explicit grass exposure in profile (advantage on surface)
• + Couacaud: higher overall win percentage on the listed surfaces could translate if grass neutralizes advantage

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses in their provided recent-match lists, indicating poor form
• - Current odds for Gaston are too short versus our estimated probability, yielding negative EV

Details

We estimate Hugo Gaston is the surface favorite due to explicit grass experience in his profile while Enzo Couacaud's profile lists only clay and hard; however, the market price (1.383) implies ~72.3% win probability, which we consider overstated. Balancing Gaston's grass exposure against Couacaud's higher career win-rate on the listed surfaces and both players' recent losses, we estimate Gaston's true win probability at 62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613; the current 1.383 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.62*1.383 - 1 = -0.143). Therefore we do not recommend backing either side at current prices and would only consider Gaston if the decimal price rises to at least 1.613 or higher.

Key factors

• • Match surface is grass and Gaston is shown to have grass experience while Couacaud's profile lists clay and hard only
• • Market implies ~72% for Gaston; we estimate ~62% given mixed recent form and Couacaud's better overall win-rate on listed surfaces
• • Recent match results in both profiles show recent losses, reducing confidence in a dominant pick