Hugo Gaston vs Stan Wawrinka

Highlights

• • Gaston priced at 2.12 (implied 47.2%) while we estimate ~50% chance
• • Minimum fair odds given our estimate are 2.00; current price exceeds that

Pros

• + Surface profile in the research favors Gaston
• + Market provides a measurable positive EV at current quote

Cons

• - Both players show inconsistent recent records in the provided data, increasing variance
• - Edge is modest (≈6% ROI) and sensitive to the probability estimate

Details

We compare the current moneyline prices to our win-probability estimate. The market prices imply Hugo Gaston at 2.12 (implied probability 47.2%) and Stan Wawrinka at 1.752 (implied probability 57.1%). From the provided recent-career records Gaston (19-34, has played grass) and Wawrinka (21-24, no grass listed), we estimate grass favors Gaston versus Wawrinka who appears to have little documented grass experience in the supplied research. Using those records as baseline win rates (Gaston ~35.8%, Wawrinka ~45.7%) and converting to a head-to-head probability gives Gaston ~44%; adjusting upward to reflect the grass surface advantage and comparable recent form, we estimate Gaston’s true win probability at 50%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds are 2.00. The available price of 2.12 thus offers positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.12 - 1 = 0.06 (6% ROI). By contrast the favourite Wawrinka at 1.752 is over-priced relative to our estimate (implied 57.1% vs our ~50%), producing negative EV. We therefore recommend backing Hugo Gaston only because the current market price exceeds our required threshold for positive EV.

Key factors

• • Gaston has documented grass match experience in the supplied profile while Wawrinka's provided record lists clay/hard only
• • Recent-career win rates are poor for both, bringing variance; adjusting baseline probabilities for surface shifts value to Gaston
• • Market-implied probability for Gaston (47.2%) is below our estimate (50%), producing a small positive edge