Highlights

• • Home implied probability (66.7%) > our estimate (60%) → negative EV on home at 1.50
• • Away at 2.50 aligns with our 40% estimate → no positive EV

Pros

• + Market contains a clearly short-priced favorite, which is easy to evaluate
• + Conservative approach avoids taking marginal or data-poor edges

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty and could hide value
• - If surface/form/injury info becomes available it may materially change the edge

Details

We estimate Hugo Grenier's true win probability at 60% (0.60) and Alastair Gray at 40% (0.40) based on conservative assumptions given no match-specific data (unknown surface, form, injuries, or H2H). The current market prices (Home 1.50 -> implied 66.7%, Away 2.50 -> implied 40.0%) price the home player as a clear favorite. Comparing our estimates to the market: the home implied probability (66.7%) exceeds our estimate (60%), producing a negative expected value on the home side (EV = 0.60 * 1.50 - 1 = -0.10). The away price is roughly fair to our estimate (EV ≈ 0.40 * 2.50 - 1 = 0.00). Because neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices, we recommend no bet. We favor caution given the absence of surface, form, injury, and H2H data — small edges here could flip value but are not supported by available information.

Key factors

• • No specific research available for surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H
• • Market implies Home 66.7% and Away 40.0%; our conservative model gives Home 60% / Away 40%
• • Home price (1.50) appears too short versus our probability, while Away (2.50) is roughly fair