Hugo Pierre vs Cristian Campese
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current pricing — Pierre looks likely to win but the market (1.25) overstates his probability versus our estimate (~70%).
Highlights
- • Pierre is clearly the more experienced player and has hard-court matches in his record
- • The market requires Pierre to be ~80% to justify 1.25; we estimate ~70% probability
Pros
- + Clear experience advantage for Hugo Pierre (21 matches vs 3)
- + Both players have hard-court experience, reducing surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Pierre's overall win rate is only moderate (7-14), limiting upside vs price
- - Very small sample for Campese (0-3) increases uncertainty in our estimate
Details
We compare the market price (Hugo Pierre 1.25 implied ~80%) to our assessed true probability. Hugo Pierre has substantially more match experience (21 matches, 7-14) versus Cristian Campese (3 matches, 0-3), and both have played on hard courts in their limited records. That experience and the opponent's 0-3 record justify a materially higher win probability for Pierre than a coin flip, but Pierre's own win rate is modest and recent results are mixed. We estimate Pierre's true win probability at ~70% (0.70), which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.429. At the current market price of 1.25 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.70*1.25 - 1 = -0.125), so there is no positive-value bet available on the favorite at posted prices. We therefore recommend taking no side unless you can obtain at least ~1.429 or higher on Hugo Pierre.
Key factors
- • Experience gap: Pierre 21 matches vs Campese 3 matches
- • Relative form: Pierre has recorded wins recently; Campese is 0-3 career
- • Surface compatibility: both have played hard court, favoring experienced player
- • Sample-size uncertainty: Campese's 0-3 is small sample and volatile
- • Market price: current 1.25 implies ~80% which exceeds our 70% estimate