Hugo Gaston vs Eliakim Coulibaly

Highlights

• • Coulibaly's season record is materially better than Gaston's
• • Gaston is the market favorite but the price appears to overstate his edge on balance of form

Pros

• + Positive EV at current away odds (3.23) under our probability estimate
• + Coulibaly's stronger win-loss profile suggests resilience and form advantage

Cons

• - Coulibaly has no recorded grass matches in the provided research, adding surface risk
• - Gaston has grass experience which could neutralize some of Coulibaly's form edge

Details

We favour Eliakim Coulibaly for value. The market heavily favors Hugo Gaston at 1.366 (implied ~73%), but the research shows contrasting signals: Coulibaly has a much stronger overall win-loss record (38-22) while Gaston is 19-34. The important surface note is grass: Gaston has recorded grass matches while Coulibaly's recorded surfaces are clay and hard (no grass listed), which reduces Coulibaly's surface edge but does not eliminate it given his superior season form and win rate. Balancing Coulibaly's clear overall form advantage against his apparent lack of grass history, we estimate Coulibaly's true win probability at 37.5%, which implies fair decimal odds of 2.667. With the available price of 3.23 for Coulibaly, this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.375 * 3.23 - 1 = 0.211). We therefore recommend betting the away side only if you accept this assessment of surface adjustment and form differential; if you put more weight on grass inexperience, the edge diminishes.

Key factors

• • Coulibaly's superior overall win-loss record (38-22) indicates stronger recent form
• • Gaston has recorded grass matches while Coulibaly's profile lists only clay and hard, creating uncertainty on grass for Coulibaly
• • Market prices strongly favour Gaston (1.366); we estimate this understates Coulibaly's chance and offers value on the away price 3.23