Hugo Gaston vs Stanislas Wawrinka
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Wawrinka is slightly overbet by the market versus our estimated probability, and Gaston lacks evidence to justify the underdog price.
Highlights
- • Wawrinka favored at 1.66 but our model estimates ~56% win chance
- • Gaston’s 2.17 price does not reflect enough upside given his weaker record
Pros
- + Avoids negative-EV favorite at current quote
- + Recognizes limited data and avoids forcing a marginal value bet
Cons
- - If we understate intangible factors (matchup, day form), missed small value on Gaston is possible
- - Market could move and create short-lived edges that we are not taking
Details
The market prices Wawrinka as the clear favorite at 1.66 (implied ~60.2%). Reviewing the provided form and records, Wawrinka has a slightly better season record (21-24) than Gaston (19-34) and recent activity in Rennes suggests familiarity with the event, but neither player shows strong recent form. We estimate Wawrinka's true win probability at ~56% based on comparative records and recent results, which is materially below the market-implied probability. At that estimate the favorite offers negative expected value (EV = 0.56 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.070). Gaston’s price (2.17) would require a true win probability above ~46.1% to be fair; given his weaker overall record and limited evidence of an edge, we do not assign him that probability. Because neither side shows positive EV at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~60.2% for Wawrinka (1.66); our estimate is ~56%
- • Both players show modest, inconsistent recent form; Wawrinka has slightly better record
- • No clear surface or injury advantage for Gaston to justify 2.17 price