Highlights

• • Away implied probability 43.1% vs our 50% estimate
• • Required fair odds 2.00; current 2.32 offers margin

Pros

• + Clear career-form advantage for Sakellaridis
• + Market appears to over-weight Grenier due to home/surface, creating value

Cons

• - Sakellaridis lacks recorded grass experience — increases matchup variance
• - No H2H or detailed recent-form breakdown to reduce uncertainty

Details

We estimate Stefanos Sakellaridis is undervalued by the market. His career win rate (51-22) is substantially stronger than Hugo Grenier's (37-34), suggesting a baseline edge for Sakellaridis. The primary caveat is surface: Grenier has grass experience while Sakellaridis's profile lists clay and hard only, which reduces but does not erase Sakellaridis's overall advantage. The market gives the away side ~43.1% implied probability (decimal 2.32). We estimate Sakellaridis's true win probability at 50.0%, which implies a required fair price of 2.00. At the available price of 2.32 there is positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.32 - 1 = 0.16 (16% ROI). We therefore recommend the away side at current prices, while noting surface-driven variance and limited direct grass data increases uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Sakellaridis has materially better career win-loss (51-22) vs Grenier (37-34)
• • Surface: grass favors Grenier (has grass experience); Sakellaridis lists clay/hard only
• • Market pricing implies 43.1% for the away; our model estimates ~50% true chance