Highlights

• • Faurel is the clear form and experience favorite based on provided records
• • Current odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, producing negative EV

Pros

• + Strong relative form and experience advantage for Faurel
• + Surface experience and recent Challenger play support Faurel's edge

Cons

• - Bookmaker price is too short to offer value on Faurel
• - Limited head-to-head and injury information in the provided data increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Thomas Faurel is clearly the stronger player based on the provided profiles (Faurel 25-22 career vs Ouzilou 0-6), recent Challenger-level match wins, and activity on clay/hard. The market price (Faurel 1.106, implied ~90.4%) is shorter than our assessed true probability for Faurel (88%), so there is no positive expected value at the quoted odds. Given Hugo Ouzilou's 0-6 record and lack of wins in the provided data, an upset is possible but unlikely; however the bookmaker's price is too tight to justify a bet.

Key factors

• • Hugo Ouzilou 0-6 career form in provided data (no wins)
• • Thomas Faurel markedly greater match experience and recent wins (25-22)
• • Both players have appearances on clay/hard; Faurel has recent Challenger-level clay matches
• • Market-implied probability (90.4%) is slightly higher than our estimated true probability (88%)