Highlights

• • Hugo's poor record and recent results suggest limited upset potential
• • Current price 1.32 exceeds our fair odds 1.25, creating a small positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Bet aligns with observable weakness in the home player's form on hard courts

Cons

• - Incomplete data on Melios (form, injuries, H2H) increases model risk
• - Bookmaker margin and small edge mean variance could erase short-term gains

Details

We assess value on Melios (away). Hugo Pierre's limited profile shows a 7-14 career record with poor recent form (only ~1 win in the latest documented stretch on hard), suggesting a clear disadvantage. The market prices Melios at 1.32 (implied ~75.8%). Given Hugo's struggles on hard and lack of evidence of an injury or form edge for Hugo, we estimate Melios's true win probability at ~80%. At that probability the fair odds would be 1.25, so the available 1.32 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.80 * 1.32 - 1 = 0.056 (5.6% ROI per unit). We acknowledge uncertainty due to incomplete data on Melios and missing H2H, so the edge is modest but present against the current price.

Key factors

• • Hugo Pierre's career record 7-14 and weak recent form on hard
• • Market odds (1.32) imply ~75.8% — we estimate a slightly higher true chance (~80%) for Melios
• • Lack of opposing data/H2H increases uncertainty but available info favors Melios