Hungary vs Austria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information we estimate Hungary's true win probability at ~65%; at the current price of 1.269 there is no value, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market strongly favors Hungary (1.269) implying ~78.8% probability
- • Our conservative true probability (65%) implies required odds of ~1.538 to break even
Pros
- + Conservative probability accounts for unknowns and reduces chance of overbetting
- + Clear numeric gap shows no positive EV at current prices
Cons
- - Lack of match-specific data means our estimate may be overly conservative
- - If inside information (line-ups, surface advantage) exists, our view could be materially off
Details
We have no external match-specific information and so take a conservative stance. The market prices Hungary at 1.269 (implied win probability ~78.8%) and Austria at 3.77. Given unknown surface, line-up, injuries and recent form, we assign a cautious estimated true probability of Hungary winning at 65%. Comparing our estimate (65%) to the market-implied probability (78.8%) shows the market is pricing Hungary substantially higher than our view, producing a negative expected value if backing Hungary at the current price. Therefore we do not recommend a side at the quoted odds because no positive EV exists.
Key factors
- • No match-specific web data available (line-ups, injuries, recent form) — increased uncertainty
- • Market implies Hungary win probability ~78.8%, which we view as overstated
- • Conservative adjustment for unknown surface and Davis Cup selection variability