Hyeon Chung vs Alexander Bublik

Highlights

• • Chung implied price (4.70) corresponds to ~21.3% but we estimate ~16% chance
• • To be a value play on Chung we would need ~6.25+ decimal odds

Pros

• + Backing Chung offers a large payout if an upset occurs
• + Chung has an overall positive win record across the documented span

Cons

• - Chung’s recent form shows several losses with no supporting indicators of improvement
• - Bublik’s recent hard-court metrics and results suggest a strongly favored position; current favorite odds leave no value

Details

We compare the market odds to our estimate of true win probability. The market prices Bublik at 1.19 (implied ~84.0%) and Chung at 4.70 (implied ~21.3%). From the provided research, Bublik shows stronger recent hard-court performance and high serve/ace metrics in late-August matches, while Chung’s recent July form includes a string of losses. We estimate Chung’s true upset probability at ~16.0%, well below the market-implied 21.3% at 4.70, producing a negative expected value on Chung (EV = 0.16*4.7 - 1 = -0.248). To be profitable backing Chung we would need decimal odds of ~6.25 or higher. Given the negative EV at available prices and the evidence of Bublik’s superior recent form, we do not find value on either side at the quoted market prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability: Chung 21.3% vs Bublik 84.0% (from provided odds)
• • Chung’s recent results show multiple losses in July, indicating weak short-term form
• • Bublik’s recent hard-court stats (aces/1st-serve wins) and results in late August point to superior form