Hyeon Chung vs Alexander Shevchenko

Highlights

• • Home price 3.75 implies ~26.7% — we estimate ~30%
• • Positive EV: ~0.125 per unit at current odds

Pros

• + Chung’s better win-loss record in the provided data set
• + Price (3.75) is above our break-even threshold (3.333) for the estimated probability

Cons

• - Recent match notes for both players include losses, showing form uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or injury details in the Research, increasing variance

Details

We find value on Hyeon Chung at 3.75. The market heavily favors Shevchenko (implied ~78.7% at 1.27), but the raw data in the Research suggests Chung has a materially stronger overall winning record this span (37-19 vs 31-36) and substantial hard-court experience, while Shevchenko’s recent results in the provided notes also show losses on hard. Given those records and both players having hard-court exposure in the Research, the market appears to overstate Shevchenko’s edge. Converting our assessed true probability for Chung into EV: with an estimated true win probability of 0.30, the 3.75 price yields EV = 0.30 * 3.75 - 1 = 0.125 (12.5% ROI). We therefore recommend betting the home player only because current decimal price (3.75) exceeds our minimum required price (3.333) implied by our estimated win probability.

Key factors

• • Chung’s superior overall win-loss record in the provided span (37-19) versus Shevchenko (31-36)
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches in the Research; Chung’s profile indicates strong hard-court activity
• • Market is heavily skewed to Shevchenko (1.27); Research results suggest that level of favoritism likely overstates true gap