Hynek Barton vs Stijn Slump

Highlights

• • Normalized market implies Away ~18.4%; we estimate 30%
• • At 5.10 the Away price yields EV ≈ +0.53 (53% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Large edge between our probability and market-implied probability
• + Both players on clay and similar recent form reduces likelihood of an overwhelming favorite

Cons

• - Limited detailed match-specific info and no head-to-head data increases uncertainty
• - A single-match variance in tennis is high; short-priced favorites can still win easily

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate of true probability. Market prices: Home 1.15 => implied 86.96%, Away 5.10 => implied 19.61% (sum = 106.57%, vig ~6.57%). Normalizing for vig gives Home ~81.6% and Away ~18.4%. Based on the limited player data, both compete on clay and have similar recent activity; Barton's career win rate (49/77 = 63.6%) is better than Slump's (36/64 = 56.3%) but not by a margin that justifies an 82% true chance. We estimate Slump's true win probability at 30% (0.30), substantially above the normalized market 18.4% and above the breakeven threshold (19.61%) implied by the 5.10 price. Using 30% against the quoted 5.10 yields EV = 0.30*5.10 - 1 = +0.53 (53% ROI per unit). Therefore the away price offers clear value versus our modelled probability. Key supporting points: comparable clay experience, modest difference in career records, recent mixed form for both, and the market appears to overstate Barton's advantage.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (normalized) place Away at ~18.4%, we estimate ~30%
• • Career records show Barton edge but not dominance (63.6% vs 56.3%)
• • Both players have clay experience and recent mixed form—no clear injury news
• • Market vig inflates favorite price making the underdog line more valuable