Hynek Barton vs Stijn Slump
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at the current Barton price (1.248); our estimated win probability (~67%) requires ~1.493 minimum odds for positive EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Barton (implied ~80%)
- • We estimate Barton closer to 67% due to limited grass data and mixed recent form
Pros
- + Barton has a higher career win rate and is the logical favorite
- + Market consensus aligns with our assessment that Barton is the stronger player
Cons
- - Both players lack grass-court history, which reduces confidence in any probability estimate
- - Current favorite odds are too short to provide positive expected value
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (Barton 1.248 -> ~80.1%) to our estimate of true win probability. Barton's career win rate (49-28, ~63.6%) and slightly stronger recent résumé give him the edge, but both players have virtually no documented grass experience and recent results are primarily on clay/hard. We estimate Barton closer to a 67% chance to win rather than the ~80% implied by 1.248, so the current price is too short to offer positive expected value. To be profitable we would need Barton to be priced at ~1.493 or higher; at the current quoted price EV is negative (we used 1.248 for the calculation). Given the surface uncertainty and mixed recent form for both players, we do not see value at current market prices and therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~80% for Barton but his career win rate and form suggest a lower true probability (~67%)
- • Both players have little or no documented grass experience, increasing outcome uncertainty
- • Recent results are on clay/hard; form is mixed for both and offers no clear advantage beyond Barton’s higher overall win rate