Highlights

• • Market implies ~30% for away (3.32) but profiles indicate a much closer contest
• • Positive EV at current mainstream price if our 40% estimate is reasonable

Pros

• + Significant edge between our estimated probability and market-implied probability
• + No research evidence of clear home superiority to justify short odds

Cons

• - Player data is limited and recent form is generally poor across all four players, increasing variance
• - No head-to-head or pairing-specific doubles data provided to refine the estimate

Details

The market heavily favors the home pair at decimal 1.294 (implied ~77.3%) while the available player profiles show nearly identical records and recent form for both pairings (all four players listed with 10-21 career records and losing recent runs). There is no research evidence of a clear quality gap, surface advantage, or injury that would justify a ~77% chance for the home team. We therefore estimate a materially higher true chance for the away pair than the market implies. Using a conservative true probability of 40% for the away team against the market-implied ~30% (decimal 3.32), the away side offers positive expected value (EV = 0.4*3.32 - 1 = +0.328). We used the current quoted away price (3.32) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Player profiles show nearly identical career records and recent poor form for all four players (no clear superior pair)
• • Bookmaker pricing implies an outsized home advantage not supported by the provided performance data
• • No injuries or surface/venue advantages documented in the provided research