I-Hsuan Cho / Yi Tsen Cho vs Zongyu Li / Han Shi

Highlights

• • Home implied chance (73.9%) far exceeds our estimated true probability (52%).
• • Min decimal odds required for a positive EV on our estimate: ~1.923.

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite which simplifies comparison.
• + Slight possible pairing familiarity for the home duo could justify a minor edge (hence our 52% estimate rather than 50%).

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.353) implies an unrealistically high probability given the available data.
• - Research lacks doubles-specific form, H2H, or injury/fitness details, increasing uncertainty.

Details

We find no value on either side. The four players show near-identical career records and recent form in the provided data, so there is no clear performance edge for either pairing. The market prices the home pair at 1.353 (implied probability ~73.9%), which is far above any reasonable true win probability we can justify from the research. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at ~52% based on parity between the players and only a small possible chemistry/home advantage; at the quoted 1.353 this produces a negative expected value. To obtain a positive EV on the home side we would need around 1.923 or longer, so the current favorite price is overbet relative to our estimate. Given the lack of evidence for a >74% chance and the uniform poor recent form across all four players, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • All four players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (no clear superiority).
• • Market strongly favors the home pair (1.353 -> ~73.9%) without supporting evidence in the research.
• • No doubles-specific pairing statistics or H2H provided to justify the large favorite price; small potential home/pairing edge only.