I-Hsuan Cho/Yi-Tsen Cho vs M. Kobori/A. Shimizu

Highlights

• • Market implies ~45.9% for the home pair; our model gives 38%
• • Current home price (2.18) yields a negative EV (~-0.172 per unit)

Pros

• + If market drifts higher (≥2.632) the home side would become a value play
• + Research clearly documents recent poor form, making our conservative estimate defensible

Cons

• - Provided research offers no positive indicators for the home pair to justify >45.9% market probability
• - No information on opponents in the research increases uncertainty and downside risk

Details

We compared the market price (home 2.18, implied probability 45.9%) to our assessment of the home pair's win likelihood. Both I-Hsuan Cho and Yi-Tsen Cho show weak recent form (each 10-21 in career matches with consecutive losses in recent events) and no positive indicators in the provided research to suggest an upward deviation from market pricing. Given limited information on the opponents and surface/venue factors in the research, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 38.0%, which is materially below the market-implied 45.9%. At the current home decimal 2.18 this produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.38 * 2.18 - 1 ≈ -0.172), so there is no value to back the home side. To justify a bet on the home pair we would need prices of at least 2.632 or higher.

Key factors

• • Both Cho players have poor recent form and overall records (10-21 each in provided data)
• • Market-implied probability for home (45.9%) is higher than our assessed 38% chance
• • No data in the research indicating opponent weakness or mitigating factors to upgrade the home pair