I-Hsuan Cho/Yi-Tsen Cho vs Zongyu Li/Han Shi

Highlights

• • Home implied chance (77%) is not supported by the comparable player data
• • Away at 3.25 offers ~36.5% expected return versus our fair estimate

Pros

• + Significant positive EV relative to current market price
• + Simple thesis based on nearly identical form and modest home bias adjustment

Cons

• - Player/sample records are thin and noisy (10-21 records) — uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - No H2H, lineup, or injury details available to further refine the edge

Details

We find clear value on the away pair (Zongyu Li/Han Shi). The provided player profiles show almost identical records and recent form for both sides (both teams show 10-21 records and mixed results on clay/hard), with no injury or H2H information that creates a strong differential. Book prices make the home duo a heavy favorite at 1.30 (implied ~77%), which is not supported by the comparable form data. Starting from a neutral 50/50 baseline and applying a modest home-court/draw advantage (we allow ~6-8% to the hosts due to bookmakers often inflating home bias), we estimate the away pair's true win probability at ~42%. At decimal 3.25 this implies an expected value of EV = 0.42*3.25 - 1 = +0.365 (36.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds needed to break even on our estimate are 1/0.42 = 2.381; the market 3.25 substantially exceeds that threshold, giving a materially positive edge. We therefore recommend backing the away side as a value play while noting limited informational depth and sample-size noise in the player records.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21), offering no clear superiority
• • Bookmakers price the home side as an overwhelming favorite (1.30) which overstates likely edge given the data
• • Modest home bias accounted for still leaves the away side with a substantially higher fair price than the market