I. Buse/J. Varillas vs N. Borges/F. Cabral
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small but positive edge on the home pair at 2.40 based on a conservative 46% win probability estimate; this yields about a 10.4% ROI per unit at the current price.
Highlights
- • Home implied chance 41.7% vs our estimate 46%
- • Estimated EV ≈ +0.104 (10.4% ROI) at 2.40
Pros
- + Positive expected value at the posted price
- + Conservative probability estimate accounts for thin-information market bias
Cons
- - No independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — higher uncertainty
- - Doubles matches are volatile; edge is modest and could be lost by unobserved factors
Details
We compared the market odds (Home 2.40 -> implied 41.7%, Away 1.55 -> implied 64.5%) and, in the absence of external form/injury/H2H data, applied conservative assumptions about doubles parity and market favorite bias. Doubles matches are often more volatile and markets can overprice a favorite, especially when information is thin. We conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 46.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 41.7% for the 2.40 price. That yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.46*2.40 - 1 = +0.104 per unit). Given the limited information, we keep the edge modest but sufficient to recommend the home side at the quoted 2.40 price. Key caveats include lack of surface/injury/H2H info and typical doubles variance, which increase uncertainty despite the positive EV.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities (home 41.7%, away 64.5%)
- • Conservative true probability estimate for home (46%) above market
- • High variance in doubles and lack of external data increases uncertainty