Highlights

• • Home true win probability estimated ~30% based on available form data
• • Current home price (2.25) implies significant negative EV for the home side

Pros

• + We have clear negative EV at the quoted home price based on available data
• + Market price (1.58 away) aligns with the weak evidence for the home pairing

Cons

• - Research lacks information on partners and opposing pair (high uncertainty)
• - No surface/H2H/doubles-form context in the sources to refine probability

Details

We estimate the I. Dapkute/E. Wilson pairing is unlikely to offer value at the current home price of 2.25. E. Wilson's available career/profile data shows weak recent results (10-21 overall, multiple recent losses), and there is no doubles-specific or opponent information in the research to offset that. At decimal 2.25 the market requires a win probability >44.44% to be +EV; our assessed true probability of ~30% for the home team is well below that, producing a negative expected return. Given the limited dataset and high uncertainty around partners/opponents and surface specifics, we withhold a recommendation rather than pursue a bet with negative EV.

Key factors

• • E. Wilson's documented form is poor (career record 10-21 with several recent losses)
• • No doubles-specific data or information on partners/opponents available in the research, increasing uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors the away side (1.58), implying the book already prices home weakness