Highlights

• • Away is market favorite at 1.43; market implies substantial favorite edge
• • Home at 2.65 would be +EV only if true win probability ≥ 37.74%, which we do not assign

Pros

• + We take a conservative stance given the absence of data, avoiding overreach
• + Clear threshold calculated (min odds needed) so value can be re-evaluated if new info appears

Cons

• - Lack of surface, form, and injury data forces broad assumptions and increases uncertainty
• - If unseen information favors the home pair, our conservative estimate may understate value

Details

With no external data beyond the listed moneyline, the market strongly favors the away pair at 1.43 (implied ~69–70% raw). Conservatively, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 34% given the lack of form, surface, injury, and H2H information. At the current home price of 2.65 a back would require a true win probability > 37.74% to be +EV (1/2.65). Using our conservative estimate (34%), the expected value at the posted home odds is negative (EV ≈ -0.099), so we do not recommend betting either side. If one believed the home pair’s true chance was ~38% or higher, the home price would represent value, but we cannot justify that uplift from the available information.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away pair (1.43) implying ~70% raw probability
• • No form, surface, injury, or head-to-head data available — we use conservative estimates
• • Home needs ≥37.74% true win probability to be +EV at 2.65; our estimate is below that