Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (1.29) ~77.5% vs our conservative estimate 72%
• • Negative EV at current odds: approx -7.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Home team is the clear market favorite — indicates a real edge may exist
• + Current price is short, which would be attractive only if confidence were higher

Cons

• - No external data to support upgrading our probability estimate
• - Doubles volatility and partnership factors increase uncertainty and downside

Details

We have no external data on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H, so we adopt a conservative estimate. The market makes Forcano/Nagoudi clear favorites at 1.29 (implied ~77.5%). Given the lack of corroborating information and the higher variance of doubles matches (chemistry, serve/return interplay), we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 72%. At that probability the fair price is ~1.389; the offered 1.29 yields negative expected value, so we do not recommend betting the favorite here.

Key factors

• • No independent form, surface, injury or H2H data available — high uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors home team (1.29) but implied probability may be overstated given lack of info
• • Doubles outcomes are sensitive to partnership dynamics and can be more volatile than singles