I. Heinzova/L. Petruzelova vs M. Horvit/M. Ngounoue

Highlights

• • Implied market probability 88.5% vs our 90% estimate
• • Estimated ROI ~1.7% at current price

Pros

• + Current price offers a slight positive expected value under conservative assumptions
• + Low volatility on paper since favorite is strongly backed

Cons

• - Edge is small and highly sensitive to estimation error
• - No available data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H increases model risk

Details

We compare the market price (Away 1.13, implied probability ~88.5%) to a conservative estimated true win probability of 90%. With no external data available on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H, we adopt a conservative edge assumption that the market slightly underestimates the away pair. At our 90% estimate the bet has a small positive edge (EV ≈ +1.7% on a 1-unit stake). The margin is slim and sensitive to our probability estimate, so this is a low-margin value play rather than a high-confidence trade.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Away is ~88.5% (1/1.13)
• • We conservatively estimate Away win probability at 90%, slightly above the market
• • No external data on surface, injuries, form, or H2H increases uncertainty