I. Ibbou/D. Papamichail vs L. Hietaranta/S. Sakellaridi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive expected value backing the home pairing at 1.73 based on a conservative 59% win probability; hold this as a low-margin, information-light value bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability 59% vs market-implied ~57.8%
- • Current odds 1.73 exceed the minimum fair odds of 1.695
Pros
- + Small positive EV at widely available prices
- + Conservative probability estimate reduces likelihood of overreach
Cons
- - Edge is small (~2% ROI) and sensitive to new information (withdrawals, surface, form)
- - Doubles tournaments can be high-variance; limited public data increases uncertainty
Details
We compare the market price (home 1.73 -> implied ~57.8%) to our conservative estimated win probability for I. Ibbou/D. Papamichail of 59.0%. That creates a small positive edge: EV = 0.59 * 1.73 - 1 = 0.0207 (about 2.07% ROI). Our estimate is conservative given limited data: we assume the home pairing has a modest experiential advantage and no known injury concerns for either side. The market is pricing the match slightly lower than our assessment; minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 1.695, so the current 1.73 offers value. We still classify this as a small, information-light edge and note higher variance in doubles and tournament conditions may quickly erode value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.73 ≈ 57.8%) is slightly below our estimate (59%)
- • Conservative assumed experiential edge for the home pairing and no reported injuries
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; small edges are sensitive to venue/surface and late scratches