I. Ibbou/D. Papamichail vs O. Simion/G. Vilar

Highlights

• • Home odds (1.07) require an implausibly high true win rate (>93.5%) to be +EV
• • Away would need decimal ≥11.76 to be +EV against our ~8% probability estimate

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a heavy favorite, so line is efficient if favorite dominance is real
• + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on low-edge situations

Cons

• - If we are underestimating the underdog (true chance >11.76%), current prices would miss value
• - Lack of data increases uncertainty and may hide exploitable edges

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to conservative, evidence-light estimates. The quoted prices imply ~93.46% for the home pair (1/1.07) and ~11.76% for the away pair (1/8.5). To be +EV we'd need to believe the favorites win >93.46% of the time or the underdogs win >11.76% of the time. With no match-specific form, injury, surface or H2H data available and given typical variability in doubles, we conservatively estimate the true chance for the underdog (O. Simion/G. Vilar) at ~8%. That is below the market threshold (11.76%), so the current 8.50 price does not offer value. Similarly, we are not comfortable assigning the home team a >93.46% win probability, so the 1.07 price also lacks value. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability: home ~93.5%, away ~11.8%
• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) — requires conservative assumptions
• • Underdog estimated true win probability (~8%) is below break-even threshold (11.76%)