Highlights

• • Market implies 64.5% for home; we estimate 70%
• • Positive EV at current price (≈8.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Away side includes a player with poor recent results (A. Smith 10-22)
• + Current price (1.55) offers margin above our conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - No doubles-specific performance or partner data available in the research
• - Uncertainty around surface, team chemistry and injuries not resolvable from provided sources

Details

We note the market prices the home pairing at 1.55 (implied 64.5%). The only concrete research available is A. Smith's singles profile showing a 10-22 record in 2024–25 and poor recent results, which suggests the Smith pairing is coming in with weak form momentum. We have no doubles-specific form or injury data for the teams beyond the match sheet, so we conservatively inflate the home pairing's win probability above the market (to reflect the away side's clear recent struggles) but leave room for uncertainty. Using an estimated true probability of 70% for the home side versus the market-implied ~64.5% produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.55 - 1 = 0.085 (8.5% ROI). Because that EV is > 0, we recommend the home side at the current quoted price. If the market price moves below ~1.429 (the break-even odds for our estimate) the value disappears.

Key factors

• • A. Smith recent singles record 10-22 indicates poor current form
• • Market-implied home probability (1.55) is 64.5%, below our 70% estimate
• • Lack of detailed doubles data increases uncertainty; we remain conservative