I. Khromacheva/N. Melichar-Martinez vs G. Olmos/A. Sutjiadi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the market makes the home side too short relative to our conservative 62% win estimate, yielding a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability by price: ~70.9%
- • Our conservative estimate for home win: 62% (fair odds ~1.613)
Pros
- + Market identifies a clear favorite which matches cautious expectations
- + We avoid betting on a short price with negative expected value
Cons
- - Limited publicly available data increases uncertainty around our probability estimate
- - If additional information (injury, lineup change, poor form) emerges, probabilities could shift quickly
Details
We compared the market price (home 1.41, implied ~70.9%) to our conservative estimated true win probability for the home pairing. Given limited external data, we assume a cautious true probability of 62% for the home duo based on typical favoritism for the listed pairing and the stronger doubles pedigree of the named partner. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.613, while the market currently offers 1.41 (too short). EV at the current 1.41 quote is negative, so there is no value on the home side. The away side would need to be priced above 2.75 for us to have strong contrary evidence of value; with no additional information to justify an away probability >36.36%, we do not see actionable value there either.
Key factors
- • Market-implied home probability (1/1.41 ≈ 70.9%) exceeds our conservative true estimate
- • Limited external information; we adopt conservative assumptions rather than inflating probability
- • Doubles matches can be volatile; without clear edges (injury/form/H2H) the shorter price offers no value