I. Khromacheva/N. Melichar-Martinez vs M. Kempen/K. Piter
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the favorite is priced too short for our conservative 69% win estimate and the underdog would need a higher probability than we assign to be +EV.
Highlights
- • Normalized market probability for home ~69%
- • Home +EV cutoff (1/1.35) = 74.07% — above our estimate
Pros
- + Market is coherent and favors the home team as expected
- + No glaring outlier prices — suggests no soft edge to exploit without additional info
Cons
- - Home odds are too short to offer value under conservative estimates
- - Away would require a >33.33% chance to be +EV; our estimate is below that
Details
With no external scouting or injury data available we treat the market as the primary information source and remove bookmaker margin by normalizing implied probabilities. Market decimals imply raw probabilities: Home 1.35 => 0.741, Away 3.00 => 0.333 (sum >1 due to vig). Normalizing yields an estimated market-backed probability for the home side of ~0.69 and away ~0.31. We adopt a conservative true probability of 0.69 for the home team (no reason to move materially away from the market without further info). At the quoted home price (1.35) positive EV would require a win probability > 1/1.35 = 0.7407, which exceeds our 0.69 estimate. The away price (3.00) would require >0.3333 probability; our estimate for the away side (~0.31) is below that threshold. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices and we recommend no bet. Odds used for the EV check: 1.35 (home).
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker margin
- • Conservative estimate aligns with normalized market favorite (~69%)
- • Current home odds require >74.07% true probability to be +EV, which we do not assign