I. Khromacheva/N. Melichar-Martinez vs M. Kozyreva/I. Shymanovich
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home pair at 1.32 (EV ≈ 3.0%), driven by a conservative 78% win estimate versus market-implied ~75.8%; margin is small and uncertainty is meaningful.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability 75.8% vs our 78% estimate
- • Positive but modest EV (~3% ROI) at current odds
Pros
- + Current odds slightly higher than our conservative fair price
- + Recommendation reflects conservative assumptions and small edge
Cons
- - Very limited match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H, surface details)
- - Edge is small — variance in doubles can erase gains quickly
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for the home pair (1 / 1.32 = 75.76%) to our conservative estimated true probability of 78%. Given limited public data, we assume a modest edge for the home duo based on presumed greater doubles experience/cohesion and typical market treatment of a Melichar-Martinez pairing. The market price (1.32) implies a probability slightly below our view, creating a small positive expected value. Key uncertainties (surface, fitness, direct H2H) temper our confidence, so the recommendation is a value play with limited margin rather than a large conviction wager.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.32) = ~75.8% vs our estimate 78% → small overlay
- • Home pairing assumed to have greater doubles pedigree/cohesion (conservative assumption)
- • Limited publicly available info on form/injury/H2H increases uncertainty