Highlights

• • Normalized win probability: Home ≈ 52.5%, Away ≈ 47.5%
• • Home fair decimal ≈ 1.903 vs market 1.77 → negative EV

Pros

• + Conservative, data-light approach avoids overbetting on uncertainty
• + Both sides checked — no positive expected value present at current odds

Cons

• - No additional match-level data (surface, injuries, recent form) to refine probabilities
• - Small negative EVs are sensitive to modest information changes — value could exist if new info appears

Details

We have no external form/injury/H2H data, so we use the quoted market prices and a conservative normalization to remove the bookmaker margin. Normalizing the implied probabilities from the supplied decimals (Home 1.77, Away 1.96) yields roughly Home 52.5% / Away 47.5% as our working (conservative) true probabilities. At those probabilities the fair decimal for the home side would be ~1.903; the market home price of 1.77 is shorter than fair, giving a negative expected value. The away side similarly offers negative EV. With no independent data to justify deviating from this conservative normalization, neither side shows positive value at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker vig (conservative baseline)
• • No independent information on recent form, surface or injuries to justify higher confidence
• • Current prices (1.77 / 1.96) imply a book margin; neither side offers positive EV after normalization