I. Amariei/C. Todoni vs A. Ibragimova /K. Zaytseva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices: the home underdog at 4.50 yields negative EV under our conservative 20% win probability estimate, and the heavy-away favorite at 1.18 requires an implausibly high true win chance to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Home implied chance 22.2% vs our estimate 20% → negative EV
- • Away at 1.18 implies ~84.7% win probability, which we do not accept without corroborating info
Pros
- + We take a conservative stance given the absence of data, avoiding likely long-term losses
- + Clear EV math: required odds threshold (5.00) and current negative ROI shown
Cons
- - If additional inside information favors either side, our conservative estimate may be too cautious
- - High market skew means small misestimation could flip EV, but we lack data to justify that
Details
We compare the market prices to conservative win-probability estimates given the lack of public data. The away pair at 1.18 implies a win probability of ~84.7%; we find that level implausibly high to label as value without match/fitness/H2H data. For the home pair we conservatively estimate a true win probability of 20% (0.20). At the quoted home decimal odds of 4.50 (implied 22.2%), the home side produces negative expected value: EV = 0.20 * 4.50 - 1 = -0.10 (−10% ROI). To be profitable on the home side we would need decimal odds >= 5.000 (1 / 0.20). Conversely, the away side would only be a value bet at 1.18 if we believed their true win probability exceeded ~84.7%, which we do not given the uncertainty. Therefore no side shows positive expected value at current prices.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors the away team (1.18) implying ~84.7% chance
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; upsets are more common than singles
- • No match-specific data (form/injury/H2H) available -> conservative estimates