I. Ibbou/D. Papamichail vs A. Anghel/E. Malygina

Highlights

• • Implied market probability (≈87.7%) exceeds our estimated 82% chance
• • Break-even odds on our estimate are ~1.220, above the current 1.14

Pros

• + Home side is clearly favored by market consensus
• + If unknown mitigating factors exist (injury to underdog) the market price could be justified

Cons

• - Current price (1.14) offers negative expected value versus our conservative probability
• - No independent match data available to confidently identify overlooked value

Details

We estimate the home pairing's true chance at about 82% (p=0.82) given the lack of external info, typical market efficiency for heavy favorites, and potential home/seed advantages. The market-implied probability at the quoted home price (1.14) is ~87.7%, which implies the market is pricing the favorite more strongly than our conservative view. Required fair decimal odds to break even on our estimate would be ~1.220; the current price (1.14) is shorter than that, producing a negative expected return. Given the absence of reliable surface, form, H2H, or injury data, we prefer not to recommend a bet since the market price offers no value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.14 ≈ 87.7%) is higher than our conservative estimate
• • No external research available — increased uncertainty around form/surface/injuries
• • Large favorite margin leaves little room for edge unless additional info is uncovered