I. Martins/L. Pigossi vs E. Appleton/I. Haverlag

Highlights

• • Estimated true probability (57%) implies break-even odds of 1.754
• • Current market odds 1.79 produce ~2% expected ROI

Pros

• + Market price exceeds our conservative break-even threshold
• + Home/venue factors likely tilt match probability toward the listed home team

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific data increases model uncertainty
• - Expected edge is small; variance in doubles can easily negate short-term returns

Details

We assign a conservative edge to the home pairing (I. Martins/L. Pigossi) because of venue/home-country advantage and the lack of contrary injury or form information. With limited data available we estimate a true win probability of 57.0% for the home side. At the current decimal price of 1.79 this implies positive expected value: EV = 0.57 * 1.79 - 1 = 0.0203 (≈2.0% ROI). The break-even decimal price for our probability is 1.754, so the market price of 1.79 offers a small but real margin. Given the sparse information and typical variance in doubles, the edge is modest but present.

Key factors

• • Home-team/venue advantage in Sao Paulo likely improves winning chances
• • No reported injuries or disqualifying conditions reduce downside risk
• • Lack of detailed H2H or recent-form data increases uncertainty and variance