Highlights

• • Market implies 55.3% for Buse; we estimate 57%
• • Expected ROI ~3.2% on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Current odds (1.81) are above our conservative fair price (1.754), producing positive EV
• + Simple, defensible edge — not reliant on speculative extra information

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, current form, injuries, H2H) increases model risk
• - Edge is small; variance in tennis can easily overturn modest expected value

Details

We see the market pricing Ignacio Buse at decimal 1.81 (implied win probability ~55.25%). Because no external data is available, we adopt a conservative, model-style view that still gives Buse a slight edge—estimated true probability 57%—reflecting our judgment that the market marginally underprices him. At p=0.57 the fair price is ~1.754; the current 1.81 offers positive expected value. We note high uncertainty due to lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H information, so the edge is modest and should be considered speculative.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~55.25% (1/1.81); our conservative model gives 57%
• • Very limited external information increases uncertainty and widens confidence intervals
• • Small discrepancy between our fair price (~1.754) and market (1.81) creates modest positive EV