Ignacio Buse vs Jaime Faria

Highlights

• • Market implies ~76% for Buse; our read is ~62%
• • We require ≥1.613 on Buse for positive EV given our estimate

Pros

• + Buse has the stronger win-rate in the supplied career data
• + Recent direct event form (Seville CH) slightly favors Buse

Cons

• - Current market price (1.32) is too short to offer positive EV by our model
• - Limited data and no H2H/injury detail in provided sources increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Ignacio Buse at decimal 1.32 (≈75.8%) to our assessment based on available form and career win rates. Buse's career record in the provided data is 42-28 (60% win rate) while Jaime Faria's is 30-27 (≈52.6%). Recent notes show Buse won the Seville CH meeting while Faria lost a match at the same event, which mildly favors Buse but does not justify the market implying ≈76% chance. Given the limited sample and no clear injury or surface disadvantage for either player in the supplied research, we estimate Buse's true win probability at 62%. At that probability the market price 1.32 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.62*1.32 - 1 ≈ -0.182), so there is no value on the favorite. To obtain positive EV on Buse we'd need decimal odds ≥ 1/0.62 = 1.613, meaning the market would have to offer ~1.62 or bigger to be profitable by our estimate.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Buse 42-28 (60%) vs Faria 30-27 (≈52.6%) in supplied data
• • Recent Seville CH notes favor Buse (Buse recorded a win; Faria recorded a loss at the same event)
• • Market-implied probability (1.32 → ≈75.8%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (62%)