Ignacio Buse vs Nuno Borges
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Ignacio Buse at 2.02 — our model estimates a ~57% win chance, giving positive expected value (~0.151 units per 1-unit bet).
Highlights
- • Buse career win rate materially better than Borges
- • Market price for Buse (<2.05) offers value versus our probability estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price (2.02)
- + Stronger overall win record and recent wins in the provided data
Cons
- - Surface for the match is unspecified in the research, introducing uncertainty
- - Limited head-to-head or up-to-the-minute injury/condition detail in the provided data
Details
We see value on Ignacio Buse at 2.02. Buse's career win rate (42-28, ~60%) is substantially higher than Nuno Borges (28-28, 50%), and recent match notes show Buse with recent wins while Borges' recent results are mixed at the US Open. The market-implied probability for Buse at 2.02 is ~49.5%; our estimated true probability (57%) is meaningfully higher, producing a positive expected value. Borges' price (1.79) implies ~55.8% which exceeds our estimate for him, so we avoid backing the favorite. We used the supplied career records and recent-form snippets and did not assume surface advantage beyond what's reported.
Key factors
- • Buse higher career win percentage (42-28 ≈ 60%) versus Borges (28-28 ≈ 50%)
- • Recent form: Buse recorded recent wins while Borges showed mixed Grand Slam outcomes
- • Current market odds understate Buse (implied 49.5%) relative to our 57% estimate