Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Estevez
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Ignacio Monzon at 3.17 — our model gives him ~39% chance versus the market's ~31.5%, yielding ~0.236 units EV per 1 unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Estevez (1.30) despite only a moderate edge in records
- • Monzon priced at 3.17 offers >20% ROI in our conservative estimate
Pros
- + Significant discrepancy between market-implied and our estimated probability
- + Both players' clay experience narrows the true skill gap, increasing upset likelihood
Cons
- - Limited match-level context and no H2H data increases model uncertainty
- - Estevez's superior overall record still implies non-trivial downside risk
Details
We view the market price (Ignacio Monzon 3.17 => implied 31.5%) as overstating Juan Estevez's edge. Both players are clay specialists with similar ITF-level experience, but Estevez's superior overall win rate (37/64 vs 25/48) does not justify a 77% market probability at 1.30 given recent mixed form for both and no clear H2H or injury advantage in the provided research. Conservatively estimating Monzon's true win probability at 39% produces positive expected value at the current 3.17 price (EV = 0.39 * 3.17 - 1 = +0.236), so we recommend taking the home upset as a value play rather than siding with the heavy favorite.
Key factors
- • Both players have clay experience at ITF level, reducing surface-driven disparity
- • Estevez's market-implied probability (≈77%) appears inflated versus available performance metrics
- • Small-sample recent form for both players is mixed, increasing volatility and upset potential
- • No evidence of clear fitness/injury advantage in the provided data
- • Monzon's win-rate is reasonably close to Estevez's, supporting a higher true probability than market implies