Ignacio Monzon vs Tomas Martinez
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge on Ignacio Monzon at 1.654 based on greater experience and marginally better form, but surface uncertainty (both are clay specialists) makes this a modest, medium-risk value play.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability: ~60.5% for Monzon vs our 62.0% estimate
- • Small positive EV (~+2.5%) at the available price
Pros
- + Larger career sample and slightly stronger win-loss record for Monzon
- + Current price (1.654) is slightly above the minimum fair odds implied by our model (1.613)
Cons
- - Both players' documented matches are on clay; grass form is unknown and reduces confidence
- - Edge is small; variance and matchup specifics on grass could erase the advantage
Details
We estimate a small value on the home player, Ignacio Monzon. The market prices Monzon at 1.654 (implied ~60.5%). Monzon has a larger match sample (48 matches) and a slightly better overall win record (25-23) than Tomas Martinez (10-12, 22 matches), which suggests more stability and match-play experience. Both profiles show predominantly clay results and no clear grass form, so surface uncertainty reduces confidence, but the larger sample and marginally stronger career record justify a modest edge. Using a conservative true win probability of 62.0% against the market-implied 60.5% yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.654 - 1 ≈ +0.025). Given the small size of the edge and cross-surface uncertainty, we classify this a medium-risk, small-value opportunity rather than a strong play.
Key factors
- • Monzon has a larger match sample and marginally better career win-loss record
- • Both players' recorded results are on clay while this match is on grass, increasing uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability (60.5% for Monzon) is slightly below our estimated true probability (62%), creating a small edge