Highlights

• • Igor favored by market but implied price overstates his win probability versus our model
• • Event-level and surface experience favor Igor, but margin is too small to overcome current odds

Pros

• + Igor shows a slightly stronger record and experience at higher-level events
• + Both players have recent hard/court experience, reducing surface surprise risk

Cons

• - Recent form for both players is mixed and sample sizes are small, increasing outcome variance
• - Bookmaker pricing leaves no positive EV at available market odds

Details

We believe Igor Kudriashov is the stronger player in this matchup based on a better win rate (15-12 vs 12-13) and competing at higher-level M25 events recently versus Adan Freire Da Silva's M15 appearances. Both players have mixed recent form, but Igor's marginally superior record and experience on hard surface give him the edge. The market prices Igor at 1.581 (implied 63.3%), but our estimated true probability for Igor is ~60.0%, below the break-even threshold for that price, so the bookmaker's price is unfavorable. Conversely, the away price 2.21 would require an implied win chance above ~45.3% to be profitable; we rate Adan lower than that level versus Igor, so there is no clear value on the underdog either. Given the available prices, neither side offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Igor has a better overall win-loss record (15-12) vs Adan (12-13)
• • Igor has recent activity at M25 events (higher level) while Adan's recent appearances include M15 events
• • Both have mixed recent form and limited head-to-head/sample size, increasing variance