Igor Marcondes vs Daniel Dutra da Silva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at the current prices; Daniel is over-priced by the market relative to the limited evidence and neither side shows positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Daniel ~59% but we estimate ~56%
- • EV on Daniel at 1.699 is about -4.9% (negative)
Pros
- + Daniel has a solid career win rate (~56%) and multi-surface experience
- + Market provides clear implied probabilities for direct EV comparison
Cons
- - Research is incomplete — no data on Igor Marcondes to identify an edge
- - Current odds favor Daniel enough that our conservative estimate yields negative EV
Details
We compared the market prices (Igor Marcondes 2.02, Daniel Dutra da Silva 1.699) to our estimate of each player’s win probability. The only research available is Daniel Dutra da Silva’s profile showing a career record of 38-30 (~56% win rate) and mixed recent results through July 2025; there is no corroborating information on Igor Marcondes in the provided data. The market implies Daniel has ~58.9% chance (1/1.699) which is noticeably higher than Daniel’s career win rate and the limited form evidence. We estimate Daniel’s true win probability at 56.0% (0.560), which produces a negative expected value at the current favorite price (EV = 0.560 * 1.699 - 1 = -0.0486). To be profitable on Daniel at current odds you would need his true win probability to exceed ~58.86%. Conversely, Igor would need a true probability above ~49.51% to be a value at 2.02; we have no basis to assign him >49.5% given the available information. Therefore there is no positive EV on either side at the quoted prices and we recommend taking no bet.
Key factors
- • Available research only covers Daniel Dutra da Silva (career record 38-30, ~56% win rate)
- • Market strongly favors Daniel (implied ~58.9%) which exceeds our estimated probability
- • No information provided about Igor Marcondes (no basis to upgrade his probability above market)