Igor Marcondes vs Pedro Sakamoto
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small value on Igor Marcondes at 1.714: our 60% win estimate produces a ~2.8% ROI versus the market price, driven mainly by Sakamoto's weak recent record.
Highlights
- • Current market implies ~58.4% for the favorite (Igor); we estimate 60%
- • Edge is small but positive (EV ≈ 0.028 per unit)
Pros
- + Sakamoto's documented subpar recent results support a lower true probability for the away player
- + Market price (1.714) is slightly above our fair price (1.667), creating measurable value
Cons
- - Limited direct data on Igor Marcondes in the provided research increases model uncertainty
- - Edge is modest; bookmaker margin and variance in a best-of-three ITF match can quickly negate small edges
Details
We compare the market price (Igor Marcondes 1.714) to our estimated win probability for the home player. The away player, Pedro Sakamoto, shows a sub-.500 career record (16-20) and poor recent form in the provided recent-match listing, especially on clay events—this supports treating Sakamoto as the weaker contender. The book market implies a home win probability of ~58.4% (1/1.714). We estimate Igor's true win probability at 60.0% based on Sakamoto's losing recent trend and the fact the market has priced Igor as favorite; at 60% the fair decimal price is 1.667, so the current 1.714 offers positive expected value. We account for bookmaker margin and limited direct data on Igor; the edge is small but present. Because expected_value > 0 at the shown market price, we recommend the home side.
Key factors
- • Pedro Sakamoto's losing career record (16-20) and poor recent form in the provided matches
- • Market prices Igor Marcondes as favorite (home 1.714), implying ~58.4% chance
- • Our estimated true probability (60%) exceeds the market-implied probability, giving a small positive edge