Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Daniel Dutra Da Silva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Daniel is slightly over-priced by the market relative to our estimate, so we pass on a bet.
Highlights
- • Daniel implied probability at 1.70 = 58.8%; our estimate = 57.0%
- • Min decimal odds to beat our estimate = 1.754 (current 1.70 is short)
Pros
- + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface-related surprises
- + Daniel's larger match sample provides more stable baseline for expectation
Cons
- - Igor's higher win rate (69%) over a small sample introduces uncertainty that could swing the true probability
- - Research is limited and truncated for recent match details and H2H, increasing model uncertainty
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The market prices Daniel Dutra Da Silva at 1.70 (implied win probability ~58.8%). From the available profiles: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes shows a strong win rate over a smaller sample (18-8 in 26 matches) while Daniel has greater match volume and recent activity (38-30 in 68 matches). Both have clay experience and no injuries are reported in the supplied research. Balancing Igor's higher win% but smaller sample and Daniel's superior experience and later activity, we estimate Daniel's true win probability at 57.0%. That implies the bookmaker is slightly overstating Daniel's chances (58.8% implied vs our 57.0% estimate), so at the current away price (1.70) there is no positive expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking a side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Igor has higher win percentage (18-8) but from a much smaller sample (26 matches)
- • Daniel has more matches (68) and broader experience; recent activity is slightly more current in supplied data
- • Market-implied probability for Daniel (58.8%) is above our estimate (57.0%) — no value at 1.70