Highlights

• • Breakeven probability for Igor at current odds: ~82.37%
• • Our estimated probability for Igor: ~80.0% → price is slightly too short for value

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the home player, reflecting probable true superiority
• + Opponent has a neutral career record and recent losses that reduce upset likelihood

Cons

• - Current odds for Igor (1.214) are too short to offer positive EV given our probability model
• - Limited publicly-available detail on Igor prevents a larger conviction edge

Details

We estimate Igor Marcondes is the clear favorite but the current price (1.214) requires an implied win probability of ~82.37% to break even. Based on the available research on Samuel Heredia (18-18 career record, mixed surfaces, recent losses) and the heavy market favoritism toward Igor, we estimate Igor's true win probability at ~80.0% (lower than the breakeven threshold). That implies the market is slightly overestimating Igor relative to our model, so there is no positive expected value on either side at the posted prices. For reference the market-implied probabilities are: Igor 1/1.214 = 82.37%, Heredia 1/4.05 = 24.69%; our model: Igor ~80.0%, Heredia ~20.0%.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favoritism for Igor (1.214) requires >82.4% true win chance to be +EV
• • Samuel Heredia shows an 18-18 record with recent losses and no clear edge on surface/form
• • No injury or other disqualifying information is present to materially lower Igor's chance