Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Pedro Sakamoto

Highlights

• • Marcondes favored at 1.60 (market-implied 62.5%)
• • Our model estimates Marcondes ~60% — below the implied probability, so negative EV

Pros

• + Marcondes has the stronger win-loss record and recent activity on relevant surfaces
• + Market pricing is close to our view, indicating low informational edge required to misprice

Cons

• - Small and noisy sample sizes for both players limit confidence
• - No head-to-head data and some recent losses from Marcondes reduce certainty

Details

We estimate Igor Ribeiro Marcondes is the favorite based on a stronger overall record (18-8) and recent activity on clay/hard, while Pedro Sakamoto has an overall losing record (16-20) and mixed recent results. Translating our judgement into a model probability gives Igor ~60% to win. The market price for Igor (1.60) implies a win probability of 62.5% (1/1.6), which is higher than our 60% estimate, so the market is overpricing the favorite and no positive-EV bet exists at the available odds. Conversely, Pedro at 2.20 implies ~45.5% which would require us to view him materially better than we do to be +EV; our view does not support that. Given the limited and noisy sample sizes, surface neutrality and lack of H2H data, we avoid taking a position.

Key factors

• • Home player (Marcondes) has a superior season record (18-8) compared with Sakamoto (16-20)
• • Both players have recent matches on clay; form is mixed and sample sizes are small/noisy
• • Book market implies a higher probability for Marcondes (62.5%) than our estimate (60%), removing value