Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~79.4%
• • Our estimated true probability is ~72%, producing a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Home player has a clearly better season win-loss record
• + Both competitors are familiar with the surfaces listed (no surprise surface swing)

Cons

• - Market has already short-priced the favorite, removing value
• - Recent match form is mixed and H2H is unknown, so uncertainty remains

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.26 → implied 79.4%) to our estimated true probability for Igor Ribeiro Marcondes. Marcondes has a stronger season win rate (18-8 ≈ 69%) versus Samuel Heredia (18-18 = 50%), and both players have experience on clay and hard courts. After adjusting conservatively for recent mixed form, lack of H2H data, and the away player’s experience, we estimate Marcondes’ true win probability at 72%. At that probability the market price (1.26) is overpriced for the bettor (EV = 0.72*1.26 - 1 = -0.093), so there is no value at current odds. To be +EV we would need odds ≥ 1.389 (implied probability ≤ 72%), which is higher than the available market price.

Key factors

• • Marcondes has a stronger season win-rate (18-8 ≈ 69%) vs Heredia (18-18 = 50%)
• • Both players have matches on clay and hard; no clear surface edge that justifies >79% market pricing
• • Recent form is mixed for both players and no H2H data to materially increase confidence