Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability: 62%
• • Current odds (1.67) produce a small positive EV (~3.5%)

Pros

• + Current odds exceed our minimum fair decimal (1.613)
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces risk of overstatement given limited data

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ~3.5%) — sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
• - Research lacks form, H2H, and injury details which increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate Ilia Simakin is the value choice. The market price of 1.67 implies a raw probability of 59.9% (1/1.67). After accounting for a modest bookmaker overround (~6.4%) and limited public match-specific information (surface: outdoor hard; no injuries reported in the provided research), we assign Simakin a true win probability of 62%. At decimal odds 1.67 this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.67 - 1 = 0.0354). The edge is small but present: the market-implied probability is close to our estimate, and the offered price exceeds our minimum fair decimal threshold (1.613). Given limited additional data (form, H2H, fitness), we stay conservative in our probability estimate but still find the current price offers value.

Key factors

• • Market price (1.67) implies ~59.9% — we estimate slightly higher at 62%
• • Surface is outdoor hard (neutral factor given available info)
• • No injury or negative condition information supplied in research