Highlights

• • Overmyer historical win rate (~13.3%) is far below market-implied probability
• • Home price 2.04 implies strong positive ROI given our probability estimate

Pros

• + Large calculated EV at current market odds
• + Market appears to overestimate Overmyer relative to his documented record

Cons

• - No researched information on Ilias Zimmermann to confirm our complement estimate
• - Small sample size for Overmyer and possible differences in event level/surface that aren't provided

Details

We see a strong discrepancy between market pricing and the available performance data. Kyle Overmyer's recorded career win-loss is 2-13 (15 matches), implying a career win rate of ~13.3% — a very low baseline. The market currently prices Overmyer at 1.763 (implied win probability ~56.7%), which appears substantially overstated relative to his documented results. With no performance data provided for Ilias Zimmermann in the research, the logical two-player complement places Zimmermann far above the market-implied chance against Overmyer. Using Overmyer's observable win rate as the primary input, we estimate Zimmermann's true probability around 86.7%, which makes the home moneyline 2.04 strongly positive EV. We note substantial uncertainty because Zimmermann's form, surface preference, injuries, and H2H are not in the research and Overmyer's sample size is small; nonetheless, at current prices the arithmetic EV is large enough to recommend backing the home player.

Key factors

• • Kyle Overmyer career win-loss 2-13 (≈13.3% career win rate)
• • Market prices Overmyer as a ~56.7% favorite (odds 1.763)
• • No provided data on Ilias Zimmermann (creates uncertainty)