Highlights

• • Market implies ~79% chance for Palavestra
• • Our estimate is ~62%, making the current price negative EV

Pros

• + Palavestra is the clear market favorite, suggesting perceived strength
• + Known to have played on both clay and hard (versatile surfaces)

Cons

• - Small match sample and losing recent form (2-3) weaken confidence
• - No opponent data provided, producing high model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Ilija Palavestra (1/1.26 = 79.4%) to our assessment based solely on the provided profile. Palavestra's limited sample (5 recorded matches, 2-3 record) and mixed surfaces (clay and hard) with modest recent results do not support an ~80% win probability. With no information about Maximillian Mroz in the research, we must be conservative. We estimate Palavestra's true win probability at 62%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.613. At the current price of 1.26 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.62*1.26 - 1 ≈ -0.219), so the market appears to overprice Palavestra and there is no value to back here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (79.4%) is much higher than evidence supports
• • Limited sample size and modest record (5 matches, 2-3) for Palavestra
• • No data provided on the opponent (Maximillian Mroz), increasing uncertainty